First results of the early parliamentary elections and coalition negotiations.
As per preliminary vote counts of the early parliamentary elections, “Popular Front” leads the race, followed by the “Poroshenko Block” and afterwards – “Samopomich” and “The Opposition Block”. Last on the list are “The Radical Party” of Lyashko and “Batkivshyna” of Tymoshenko. “Svoboda” doesn’t pass the elections barrier of 5%. Observers do testify that elections within the east of the country have been conducted with massive infringements, which enabled former party of regions members, who voted for dictatorial legislative initiatives of former president Yanukovych, to be elected. Leaders of the election winning parties have already started coalition negotiations. “Poroshenko Block” hopes that the new majority will adopt Constitutional Amendments. The World leaders congratulated Ukraine with the victory of democracy. The US wants to see the final results to assess the parliament composition. Elections results haven’t been yet established in some districts due to violations. Internal Affaris Ministry launched more than 300 criminal cases against intervention in the elections process, including bribery of voters. Newly elected deputies have already became scandal stars. In particular, journalist Nayem asked for salary increase.
“The third Gas War”
After lengthy negotiations and Gazprom’s blackmailing, trilateral protocol between Russia, Ukraine and the EU was signed to define conditions of natural gas supply and transit, debt repayment, details of gas deliveries until March of 2015, as well as technical conditions of gas supplies. The Protocol is a temporary solution for the gas problem until the Ukrainian appeal against Russia is considered by the Stockholm Arbitrage. The EU provided Ukraine with financial guarantees of payment for Russian gas supplies in case prices are increased unilaterally. Russian Prime-minister Medvedyev has recently signed an order to minimize import duties for Ukraine in order to bring the prices to the agreed levels. At the same time, the Council of Federation authorized Gazprom not to pay for gas transit through Ukraine and arrange the debt write-offs instead. While fighting with the reverse supplies of gas to Ukraine, Russia has recently reduced gas exports to Europe by 17% and must pay fines to European consumers. As per decision made previously, the Government started to prepare for the contest for modernization and joint operations, and management of Ukrainian gas transportation system by European and American companies. National Energy and Communal Services increased the price of gas for communal enterprises and industry, but the Government intends to equalize prices for public and industrial sectors. Terrorists continue to consume gas and other resources. Pime Minister Yatsenyuk and Naftogas head Kolobov warmed about potential termination of gas supplies to the regions controlled by DPR and LPR.
DPR and LPR “elections”
Despite numerous warnings from the World leaders about unacceptability of breaching Minsk agreements, terrorists from Donetsk and Luhans’k “popular republics” conducted “elections” under a gun point. As promised, Russia declared “the elections” as demonstration of free will of citizens. The EU and the US didn’t recognize “the elections” and said that sanctions against Russia will be tightened if Minsk agreements are not complied with. Ukrainian authorities as well warned about legal implications for foreign nationals participating in the “elections” as observers. Militants gave away various items for free during the elections, as well as used the vot5ing process to estimate the mobilization resource.
Economic situation
State Statistics Agency reported sharp increase of the salary arrears in the majority of country’s regions, with Donetsk and Luhans’k leading the list. Arrears growth reached 156% in the current year. Salary growth reached only 6% in the same imte period. At the same time, local currency devaluated against major currencies by more than 1,5 times. The state debt of Ukraine grew by 7% in September and reached 74 bln. USD. IMF forecasts the state debt to reach 102% of GDP by the year end. Exchange rate established by the NBU vs. major currencies hasn’t changed. Demand for hard currencies on the interbank market is still high despite the currency auctions held by the National Bank. National Bank cancelled some restrictions on payments for currency nominated contracts. The Government is expecting to get the next tranche of the stabilization credit in the beginning of 2015. Antimonopoly Committee demanded petrol traders to decrease fuel prices following the 15% decrease of oil prices on international markets.
Humanitarian convoys
Russian “humanitarian convoys” containing unknown goods are flowing into Ukraine without any customs clearance and supervision of international organizations. Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry urged Russia to stop provocations with “convoys”, as well as stressed that “convoys” are not considered as humanitarian aid. Intensity of shelling of Ukrainian military positions intensifies after “convoys” arrival.
Military Assistance
The US Ambassador to Ukraine Pyatt confirmed that US developed a support program for the strategic perspective and are ready to provide Ukraine with defensive military technologies. The latter has been as well confirmed by visiting US senators.
The escalation of Russian military presence
The cease fire enabled terrorists to regroup their forces, receive armored vehicles and anti-aircraft systems from Russia. “Humanitarian convoys” continue to supply ammunition. Militants have been replaced with Russian contract troops on key directions of potential offensive: Mariupol, Volnovakha, Debaltseve, Artemivsk. Shelling of Ukrainian army potions with artillery and multiple rocket launchers, as well as reconnaissance in force operations are ongoing. The frequency of clashes has increased substantially. Unloading of Russian military equipment and its further transfer to Ukraine have been recently witnessed within Russian railroad stations close to Ukrainian border. Numbers of Russian troops on Ukrainian soil are growing. They are actually directing major activities of terrorists. Russian army brings armor and ammunition, deploys anti-aircraft sysmtes, systems of electronic and radio intelligence on Ukrainian territory. Intensity of Russian provocations in the international air space has sharply increased. NATO fighter jets are intercepting them on a daily basis.
