The bad news:
1. The border guards claim Russian troops are carrying out constant air surveillance of our troops near Mariupol and on the administrative border of Crimea. Within only the last day, Russian intelligence drones were seen twice: one near a checkpoint by Mariupol and the other on the border of Kherson Oblast [region] near the Chonhar checkpoint.
According to our data, the border guards do not shoot down the Russian drones for one simple reason. While earlier they worked at an altitude of 300-500 meters, they could be downed using sniper weaponry, now the Russians are launching their devices at an altitude of more than 1000 meters. Meanwhile, the border guards have no air-defense weaponry to destroy targets at this altitude.
However, the very fact of active intelligence work on locations where the Russians are currently concentrating their forces, is very bothersome. It’s clear to everyone what this smells of. Although, our security forces do state they will provide defense to the administrative border with both Crimea and Mariupol.
2. The media reported: Cherkasy Battalion, in almost its entirety (over 400 people) refused to carry out a military task and move to the front line. Their argument: the battalion was not given heavy weaponry. They say Cherkasy was sent to the roadblock near Donetsk armed only with machine guns.
I understand that the sympathies of masses of Ukrainians in this situation lie on the side of the refuseniks, but let’s face it: I wonder where in the general military code, in the section on appealing orders, there is a line to the effect that if you don’t like an order, you should immediately call the journalists and cause a nationwide scandal? I wonder who of the high commanders was informed about the situation before this story swept the media’s attention? From this it follows that the fighters, armed solely with machine guns, are being left alone without cooperation with other departments, to fight against ‘enemy Grads and the artillery?’ There is a sea of questions.
We must remember that such stories are a reliable tool to demoralize not only the personnel of other departments but primarily, those who have just been mobilized. They are convinced long before they are sent to the conflict zone that they were betrayed, ‘flushed away,’ and in general one can come up with a thousand and one reasons and refuse to fight at all. In order for it to work, one just needs to invite the press and cause a scandal, while even turning into heroes.
The military command should comment on such instances immediately, in order to make everything clear. Or better yet: solve these problems during work hours.
The good news:
1. The OSCE notes an increase in the flow of people in military uniform from Ukraine to Russia. They say, since the beginning of the ceasefire, Putin’s warriors are fleeing home.
Earlier, President P. Poroshenko stated that, according to military intelligence data, Russia has withdrawn 70% of its troops from the Donbas.
We are a little less optimistic. The removal of a fixed number of troops is obvious, however it is difficult to argue that the Russians do not use the ceasefire to rotate their units who got it pretty good from our troops in recent battles before the Minsk protocol was signed. And therefore, it is better to wait before celebrating. Especially because, while Russian troops are leaving the northeastern conflict zones, they are accumulating in the south, in the direction of Mariupol.
What we don’t like even more is the flow of Russian fuel tankers coming from Russia to Donbas. God knows, hopefully the Russian occupants need the fuel to leave Ukraine, and not for [further] offensive operations.
2. Sociological surveys show that in the Donbas conflict the sympathies of Americans and Europeans are on our side. According to GMF, 57% of Americans and 58% of Europeans think the governments of their countries should “ensure economic and political support for Ukraine, even if it causes a conflict with Russia.”
But this – is a complete failure of the Russian propaganda machine which, from the first day of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, went out of its way to feed Western audiences selective propaganda shit. But no matter how many billions came from Russian taxpayers’ pockets to finance this machine, it failed to whitewash Putin and hide the aggression. Not in this case.
If I were in the Russian government’s shoes, I would sue the sellout Western ‘experts’ and ‘journalists’ (as well as the entire editorial committees of some western media that live on Moscow’s handouts), which failed to brainwash western audiences. And ‘profiling’ mass media journalists, such as those from Russia today, should all be sent to district newspapers in Povolzhye to write articles on the successes of bread makers and milk producers. Information warfare is definitely not their thing, they are way too bad at it.
At the same time, thank you to our diplomats, and those western journalists, through whom the world knows the truth about events in Ukraine. A low bow [to them].
3. Something positive within the Information Resistance group. We decided to legalize our southern networks – the Ministry of Justice received documents to register the Southern subdivision of the Center for Political and Military Research (IR group). The zone of responsibility includes Odesa, Kherson, Mykolayiv oblasts and Crimea. The headquarters of the subdivision will be located in Mykolayiv for certain reasons. The eastern subdivision remains in a non-legal position, just like the Crimean sector of the Southern subdivision.
The tasks of the subdivisions is to monitor the situation in the regions, to cooperate with civic patriotic organizations, law enforcers and special services.
A little later we will launch the project on a regular formation of a ‘color scale’ of threats in the regions (we call it Project ‘Traffic Light’ – we have published such ratings of threats previously, but now it will be done according to serious methodology, developed based on our consultations with foreign analytical centers [think tanks], based on in-depth monitoring and subject to regular consultations with the special services). In sum, the work will suffice.
P.S.: Friends, I have to share with you. After consultation with the other IR group coordinators, I accepted the offer to join the Board of the so-called Military Council of the political party ‘People’s Front,’ which was officially registered today.
Why this political force? Two reasons. Firstly, we have not found in any of its lists any of the previous regime’s henchmen, and at the same time, see the names of our ATO heroes and activists here – those, with whom it is considered an honor to work. I am sure it is a team of actions, not words.
Secondly, we, the IR group, had a dialogue with state structures and cooperated with them this spring thanks to O. [Oleksandr] Turchynov – after his invitation to a meeting and a frank conversation (which was constructive: our proposals were accepted and executed – this is how, by the way, the acting interim President ordered the creation of the current ATO press center). And, insomuch as we started working together with the founders of the ‘People’s Front’ on the eve of Russia’s invasion, we consider it logical to continue this work in the political format.
At the same time, I am confident that work in Parliament would allow us to more effectively address the urgency of the tasks that we have set ourselves: from active participation in a radical reform of the system of national security and defense, as well as the fight against corruption in the ranks of the military and law-enforcement, and to the solution of social problems of people in uniforms – primarily, ATO participants.
How will this affect the work of IR? In no way, if we are talking about the possible negative aspects. We do not consider politics an end in itself, but an instrument of new possibilities to perform the task we were created for: to work for the benefit of Ukraine. We continue to work as usual.
