The entry of Belarusian helicopters into Polish territory, which Polish officials initially chose not to acknowledge, and later, when numerous photo evidence from Polish citizens was revealed, they were forced to admit, is clearly not an ordinary “incident”.
Russia sets its sights on Poland
It is worth recalling the joint “concert” of dictators Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, who spun tales about a “stroll” of Wagner mercenaries into Poland, the personal benefit of the bunker-bound grandfather (Putin), who suddenly remembered that he “gifted Polish territories to the Poles on Stalin’s behalf”, the relocation of Wagner Group mercenaries to Belarus, and so on.
Clearly, all of this is part of a special operation. For now, it’s a psychological one. What are its goals and objectives? It’s evident that the bunker-bound grandfather has no plans to fight against NATO, no matter what his propagandists might say. He lacks the resources, capabilities, and even the desire for that.
However, he understands perfectly well that NATO’s support (even as limited as it currently is) significantly impacts the fundamental feasibility of achieving the “objectives of the special operation.” The bunker-bound figure doesn’t want to wage war against NATO but he does want to isolate Ukraine from the states within NATO. Ideally, the aim is to also push NATO itself into a crisis situation, one that could provoke uncertainty, instability, and disintegration.
See also: NATO fails the “courage test.” Helicopter invasion of Poland could have serious consequences
For this purpose, Poland has been chosen as the target, not for the first time, by the way, and in the role of the instrument — the mustached Belarusian comedian.
The scheme, it seems, is as follows: to constantly keep Poland in a state of “Russian” threat by fueling it with continuous provocations at the border. The “lining” in the form of the Belarusian leadership allows minimizing risks and making the dictator from Minsk the scapegoat if the situation’s development becomes undesirable. The bunker-bound figure shows his cowardice here as well, promising an “attack” on Poland through someone else’s hands.
What the Poles should understand
The logic here is simple. NATO consistently declares that it won’t engage in war with Russia. An attack on one NATO member state is supposed to trigger a response from all members. Therefore, it implies a collective war effort involving all (including the USA) against Russia, something the USA itself is reluctant to embrace.
Hence, the idea is to drive them into a situation through provocations where the undesirable choice is imminent, and then propose a trade-off: we reduce provocations, and you reduce support for Ukraine. Of course, the logic is questionable, but it fits right into the bunker-bound mentality’s scheme. Ultimately, even if it doesn’t reach that point, any display of “NATO weakness” in the context of protecting its members becomes a card played in the game led by the Kremlin.
Unfortunately, the Poles are currently responding weakly. It simply needs to be understood that the only effective argument against Kremlin’s schizophrenics is a show of force. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demonstrated this multiple times, and even those in the bunker still listen to him. Did he shoot down a Russian plane? Well, then he’s a “serious guy,” someone you can reckon with.
The Poles should be prepared to shoot down Belarusian aircraft, eliminate militants crossing over from Belarus, and destroy them outright without negotiations. This immediate response will put a halt to any provocations, and there won’t be any attacks on NATO. Russia will simply change the direction of its actions. Because realistically, they fear engaging in war with NATO more than NATO itself.
Otherwise… No, there won’t be a war between Russia and the West but there will be a significant crisis, the political consequences of which will be unpredictable.
Originally posted by Petro Oleshchuk on 24 Kanal. Translated and edited by the UaPosition – Ukrainian news and analytics website
See also: Poland in the crosshairs of the Kremlin: Russia raised the stakes to avoid a total defeat
