For almost a year and a half of full-scale war in Ukraine, the largest Asian countries still haven’t chosen sides. They resemble a lurking dragon, waiting for clarity on who is winning and who is losing. How the region views the war and who supports Ukraine there is discussed in the material by RBC-Ukraine.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the interdependence of different continents in the world. For instance, the blockade of Ukrainian grain exports threatens famine in Africa, and in Latin America, prices of food are rising due to spikes in the global markets.
However, the situation with Asia is different, as powerful countries in this region, like India and China, can influence the course of the war in Ukraine. India, taking advantage of the situation, is buying Russian oil at low prices, which Moscow needs to offload after Western markets closed to it. China, on the other hand, is helping Russia bypass sanctions, enabling the continuation of this war.
Ukrainian authorities aim for greater involvement of the Global South in resolving the conflict with Russia. However, similar to Africa and Latin America, Ukraine did not pay sufficient attention to Asia after gaining independence, so now it has to make up for lost time to secure support from this region.
The great pragmatist
The indisputable major regional players in Asia include China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Yet, the greatest influence comes from Beijing. Other countries in the region shape their policies with regard to China’s stance.
China publicly maintains a position of neutrality regarding Russian aggression towards Ukraine, while emphasizing the need to abide by international law. Nevertheless, China assists Russia in circumventing sanctions, enabling it to continue the war. Furthermore, according to Politico’s investigation, Chinese companies are reportedly exporting drones and protective equipment to Russia, which are presumably being received by Russian troops.
However, according to experts, such behavior by China is linked to Beijing’s pragmatism and, above all else, its own national interests. As explained by Ukraine’s ambassador to Beijing, Pavlo Riabikin, for China, which is vying with the US for geopolitical primacy, Russia serves as both a political partner and a resource source. In his opinion, the relations between Moscow and Beijing are a “calculated marriage” in which Russia transforms into a raw material appendage.
Indeed, capitalizing on Russia’s estrangement from European markets, China, along with India, began massively acquiring Russian energy resources at staggering discounts. China and India account for about 80% of Russian exports. However, as Western media noticed, China abruptly lost interest in the Russian market in June, favoring Iranian petroleum products instead.
Simultaneously, Russia remains a crucial ally for China in the struggle against the US for geopolitical influence. Beijing seeks a multipolar world and aims to reshape the established international order, but does so cautiously, while Moscow acts as a collaborator willing to “rush to the ramparts,” noted East Asia expert Nataliya Butyrska in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.
From Ukraine’s perspective, as per Riabikin’s statements, there is a desire to involve China more in its international initiatives aimed at ending the Russian war and overcoming its consequences, primarily within the framework of the Ukrainian peace formula. However, China has its own vision regarding this matter. On the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing published its “peace formula,” outlining the Chinese position on the political settlement of the conflict.
The Chinese “formula” consisted of 12 points, but it does not mention the withdrawal of Russian military. Instead, it calls for the cessation of hostilities and negotiations. China’s position could be interpreted as an attempt to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia, though it is unlikely aimed at achieving a fair peace.
Even China’s special envoy, Li Hui, visited Ukraine to lay the groundwork for “Chinese diplomacy.” However, his visit to Ukraine and then to the EU ended up being largely unsuccessful, as European partners did not support Beijing’s initiatives, including the idea of territorial concessions to Russia.
Among experts, a common notion is that China benefits from the war in Ukraine because it weakens Russia and makes Moscow increasingly dependent on Beijing. However, according to Butyrska’s opinion, it cannot be said that China benefits from the continuation of the war, as it has negative repercussions for China as well. Due to the anti-Russian sanctions, China had to alter logistical routes, and some Chinese companies risk falling under Western restrictions due to their cooperation with Russia.
The proximity to Moscow has also strained China’s relations with the EU, with which it has significant trade ties. The war has also heightened Western attention to the Taiwan issue, the reunification of which with China is arguably one of the main national goals for China.
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China wields substantial influence over Russia, leading the West to repeatedly urge Beijing to use that leverage to end the war. China could potentially compel Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine and bring it to the negotiation table. However, forcing Russia into peace does not seem to be China’s plan. Beijing consistently demonstrates its supposed neutrality, even when the building of the Chinese consulate in Odesa was damaged by Russian aggression.
“This can be explained by the extremely close interaction between two states that act as a united front, share common positions on the international stage, coordinate their actions, and support each other in opposition to their collective adversary, namely the Western bloc,” explained Riabikin.
However, there are still instances when China uses its influence to restrain Russia. At the beginning of July, the Financial Times reported that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, supposedly personally warned Putin against using nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine during his March visit to Moscow. The Chinese government noted that nuclear restraint is a crucial part of China’s efforts to restore its damaged relations with Europe.
At present, it’s impossible to predict whether China will continue to support Moscow in the future. But as per Butirska’s observations, a Russian defeat in the war, which could potentially lead to the collapse of Russia, wouldn’t be in China’s favor. The destabilization of Russia would disrupt the regional stability that China strongly desires. A regime change in Russia is also not in China’s interests, as it’s uncertain whether a new government would be willing to continue the partnership under the current terms.
“If the Putin regime falls, it will pose a challenge for China,” she summarized.
However, it seems that this week there have been glimpses of hope that Beijing might reconsider its position regarding the war and Ukraine. The American Wall Street Journal learned about China’s plans to participate for the first time in a meeting on the Ukrainian peace formula in Saudi Arabia. Later, Beijing confirmed this by sending the previously mentioned Li Hui to the meeting.
The reason for this turnaround might be Russia’s behavior itself, particularly its blocking of the grain corridor, as China is one of the largest importers of Ukrainian food products. Adding fuel to the fire was the revolt by Prigozhin, which demonstrated the inability of Putin’s regime, whom the leader of China calls a friend, to confront such challenges.
A meeting at the leadership level could have helped change China’s stance, something that President Zelenskyy has proposed on numerous occasions. However, beyond the phone conversation between the two heads of state that took place in April 2023, no further progress has been made. At the same time, according to Ambassador Riabikin, the Ukrainian side remains open to communication.
“If Beijing shows interest in another round of dialogue between the heads of our states, including a personal meeting between them, I am confident that Zelenskyy will eagerly meet with Xi Jinping. We have much to discuss with China. Of course, the first topic for conversation is peace. A fair and lasting peace in Ukraine, Europe, and the whole world,” he stated.
Neutral leader of the Global South
A form of neutrality concerning Ukraine in Asia is also maintained by India, which is another major regional player. India abstained from voting on key UN General Assembly resolutions regarding Ukraine — resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression and the Ukrainian peace formula. Meanwhile, both New Delhi and Beijing are actively purchasing Russian energy resources, providing income to Russia’s war machine.
India has adhered to a policy of non-alignment since the days of the Cold War, a stance that is essentially being repeated now. India’s position is influenced by its long-standing friendship with Russia, dating back to the times of the Soviet Union. Unlike the West, the USSR supported India in its conflict with Pakistan, providing military assistance. On the other hand, Ukraine has been selling arms to both sides throughout the India-Pakistan conflict, which, according to Butyrska, has also left its mark on relations with New Delhi.
Meanwhile, India has strained relations, including territorial disputes, with China, which is actively drawing closer to Russia. Currently, India is trying to balance its relationship with Moscow, hoping not to fall into complete dependence on China and to continue being a friend to New Delhi.
“That’s why, even in this situation, India is trying to maintain relations with Russia ans trade with it. For instance, it invited Putin to the G20 summit. This is a characteristic of India’s policy. It leaves room for relations with Russia,” the expert explained.
According to Butyrska, India wants to position itself as a leader defending the interests of the Global South. This can also explain some of India’s statements regarding the war. For example, India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh criticized the West for not paying enough attention to conflicts and issues in other regions while desiring global involvement in matters that concern itself.
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Ukrainian partners, including the USA, Japan, and the EU, consistently raise the topic of Ukraine in their interactions with representatives from India, attempting to persuade New Delhi to support Kyiv in the war with Russia. Ukraine also engages with the Indian side, and such comprehensive efforts are starting to yield results. Neutral India has also joined the meeting regarding the peace formula in Saudi Arabia.
However, India does not utilize its influence within the framework of the G20, where it is presiding this year. Often, ministerial meetings within the G20 conclude without a joint communiqué, as participants fail to reach consensus on the section regarding the war in Ukraine. Moreover, India does not plan to invite Ukraine to the September G20 summit in New Delhi, despite the fact that the issue of the war will likely be a key theme.
“In our view, participation in the G20 is meant for the members and organizations we have invited. We announced this list as soon as we began preparing for the G20,” explained India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
Asian advocates for Ukraine
While China and India are utilizing the situation for their own interests and demonstrating a certain neutrality, countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have closely perceived the war in Ukraine, as it affects the global situation.
“These are our allies, and Japan is our significant Asian advocate,” emphasized Nataliya Butyrska in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine, reminding that Tokyo also chaired the Group of Seven (G7) this year, promoting Ukrainian interests there.
These countries actively support Ukraine and uphold Ukrainian interests in Asia, especially Japan. In March of this year, for the first time since the beginning of the war, the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Ukraine and signed a declaration of special global partnership with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Kishida’s visit coincided with Xi Jinping’s meeting with Putin in Moscow, effectively showcasing whose ally each country is in this war.
Japan actively engages in supporting Ukraine in the war. The country’s laws prohibit it from providing weapons, so Tokyo assists Kyiv financially and in humanitarian ways. Just in the past year, Japan allocated over one and a half billion dollars in aid to Ukraine. The country also imposes its own sanctions against Russia, including the prohibition of exporting drones and their components, radio equipment, aluminum, and steel.
A similar situation exists with South Korea. Last year, Seoul allocated 100 million dollars for humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and this year increased the amount of aid by another 50 million. South Korea is one of the world’s largest arms exporters, including “NATO-type” weapons, and military assistance from Seoul would be beneficial for Ukraine.
Although the office of South Korean President Moon Jae-in doesn’t rule out military assistance to Ukraine, parliamentary dominance by the Democratic Party hinders this, according to Butyrska. Democrats, as explained by the expert, support closer relations with China and Russia, believing that these ties could help resolve the conflict with North Korea.
However, South Korea seems to have found a way to provide military support to Ukraine after all. The United States has assisted it in this endeavor by signing a contract for the supply of artillery shells intended for the needs of the Ukrainian army. A similar agreement, according to Western media reports, might also be possible with Japan.
Both Tokyo and Seoul support Ukraine on the diplomatic front as well. This is evident in their voting in the United Nations General Assembly and their participation in Ukrainian diplomatic initiatives. Specifically, South Korea took part in a meeting regarding the peace formula in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, while Japan invited President Zelenskyy to the G7 summit.
Taiwan can also be considered an ally of Ukraine. However, its assistance is limited to financing various Ukrainian infrastructure projects. As explained by Butyrska, this is due to Ukraine’s support of the “One China” policy and its cautious approach to contacts with Taiwan, in order not to harm its already complex relations with Beijing.
Distant south
Most of the countries in South Asia, particularly members of ASEAN, tend to hold similar and distant positions on the issue of Ukraine. Almost all the countries in the organization, which are members of the United Nations except Laos and Vietnam, support Ukrainian resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression. However, this is essentially where it ends, as noted by Butyrska. Countries in the region try to stay away from the issue of the war, partly due to aligning with China’s position.
Among them, Singapore stands out. It has joined Western sanctions against Russia. Cambodia also aids Ukraine in humanitarian matters. However, Cambodia still seeks to balance between Ukraine and China, which is an ally of Russia.
For instance, Cambodia decided to assist Ukraine with demining efforts. This proposition was important for Ukraine, as Cambodia possesses significant experience in demining after its civil war. Initially, Cambodia expressed readiness to send its instructors to Ukraine. However, later, possibly to avoid straining relations with China and Russia, it abandoned this idea and decided to train Ukrainians on its own territory.
At the same time, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen publicly stated that such assistance to Ukraine is “purely a humanitarian act” and added that Cambodia is also willing to train Russian deminers. However, despite all this, the first group of Ukrainian deminers completed their training in Cambodia this January.
“We don’t hear about other countries. This is the general trend. They maintain neutrality, support international law, but don’t actively participate,” Butyrska added.
Indonesia, which led the G20 last year, showed interest in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It invited Volodymyr Zelenskyy to a summit in Bali and called on Russia to seek peace. The President of Indonesia also became the first Asian leader to visit Ukraine after the war began. However, this interest disappeared immediately after his G20 presidency ended.
In June, Indonesia once again made itself known. The country’s Defense Minister, Prabowo Subianto, proposed his own “peace plan” for Ukraine and Russia at the largest Asian security forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Subianto’s plan involved freezing the conflict using the so-called Korean scenario and holding a referendum in the “disputed territory.”
In Ukraine, such a proposal naturally sparked outrage. For instance, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov referred to his colleague’s proposal as “strange” and noted that it “resembles a Russian plan, not an Indonesian one.” Subianto’s statement was also criticized by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“There are no disputed territories to hold referendums on between Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” remarked spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko, adding that the only viable scenario for ending the war is the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
However, according to Nataliya Butyrska, the statement by the Indonesian Defense Minister is solely his personal initiative and not the official position of Jakarta. As the expert notes, presidential elections are scheduled in Indonesia for the following February, in which Subianto will also participate. Therefore, in her opinion, the Indonesian minister is simply trying to gain political points in this manner.
In search of support
Three decades after gaining independence, Ukraine did not pay sufficient attention to the Global South. Before the full-scale war, Ukraine was developing economic ties with China. In particular, since 2011, China was considered a strategic partner for Ukraine. However, the full-scale invasion by Russia brought its own adjustments to this partnership.
To win the favor of Asia, Ukraine needs to secure the support of the main regional players, namely China and India. And it seems that the positions of these countries are indeed beginning to shift in the right direction for Ukrainians. Recent appointments of ambassadors in these countries can certainly contribute to this.
However, according to Butyrska, Kyiv needs to seek other allies as well, who will help advance Ukrainian interests. Countries like Japan and South Korea could become such allies.
Ultimately, the rest of Asia will have to choose sides, as the conflict instigated by Russia has long transcended Ukraine’s borders and has left its imprints practically on all regions of the world. The direction the “Eastern Dragon” takes will depend on both Ukraine and its partners.
Originally posted by Dmytro Levytskyi on RBC-Ukraine. Translated and edited by the UaPosition – Ukrainian news and analytics website
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