Andrey Piontkovsky, a political scientist from Washington, in an interview with the host of the Studio West program, Antin Borkovsky, on the Espreso TV channel, talked about the Russian lobby in the White House and attempts at new negotiations.
The extremely important visit of China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu to Moscow — Minsk. What could he have come with? Will he try to persuade, and exert pressure on Moscow to lower the level of aggression? Or, on the contrary, will he use the situation and gradually take over the military-industrial complex of Belarus? Perhaps there are additional options; it’s not for nothing that the defense of NATO’s eastern flank is being strengthened now, including concerns about possible Russian provocations from the territory of Belarus.
Firstly, regarding the visit of the Chinese minister, it should be understood that the long-time dictator Lukashenko is playing a game behind Putin’s back. He understands that Putin’s goal, and the goal of the Russian elite in general for the past 20 years, has been to turn him into a Minsk secretary of the regional committee. He desperately resisted this and found an ally in China. And China views the territory of Belarus as an excellent hub for its penetration, primarily economic, into Europe. Therefore, to some extent, China plays the role of a guarantor of Lukashenko’s sovereign existence in relation to Putin.
Regarding the possibility of aggression against NATO countries, with a shiver down his spine, Putin and the Russian General Staff are considering the possibility of war with NATO. Let’s look at it: after all, there’s at least one Ukrainian army that is reasonably, if not as much as we would like, supplied with Ukrainian weaponry, at least on a minimum level, like the second army. Imagine the potential of even another Poland.
Let’s assume that tomorrow the armed forces of both Poland and Ukraine are at war against Russia — can Russia achieve its goals?
This is outright blackmail, but this blackmail could end poorly for Putin. Because the Poles are prepared for this and they are ready to raise the stakes. In September, Lukashenko and Putin will likely begin their favorite exercise — flooding migrants, pretending that anyone could be among them. This time, the Poles will respond more decisively — they will simply eliminate people crossing the border. And if escalation occurs, the Poles are ready to raise the stakes and use their armed forces. This is evident in their actions as well as in the statements of their leaders.
There are quite strange signals coming through, which are regularly refuted. A few days ago, in Ukraine, we painfully experienced an incorrectly interpreted statement that was published in a Norwegian newspaper. There was a huge denial from NATO that there would be no NATO membership in exchange for Ukrainian sovereign territories seized by Putin’s fascists.
You know, I wasn’t exactly surprised; I understood why this was happening. But I was struck by NATO’s immediate reaction at all levels — the refutation of this unsuccessful expression by the Norwegian official. It was interpreted in Norwegian press headlines as “Exchanging Territory for NATO”…
It is called yellow press.
But what’s important is the level of denial and refutation. Because in Ukraine, versions emerged immediately that this wasn’t a random slip of an accidental official, it’s NATO policy being intentionally tested. Well, what do you want — should they all be resolute like Kirby from the National Security Council? And why is this happening? The overall atmosphere in Washington has changed, negotiations grabbed this group of Burns-Sullivan. They’ve caught hold of excellent, as I called them, Ukrainian “Stirlitz,” who extracted and published the protocols of the so-called talks between Tom Graham and Putin’s closest advisors in Moscow, the scandalous negotiations.
And now Sullivan and Burns are forced to declare daily that they have no connection to Graham’s mission.
Similarly, in the well-known film Seventeen Moments of Spring. Do you remember this story, where the feat of this Soviet Stirlitz lies that he disrupted negotiations between the United States and the Hitlerian Reich?
When SS General Wolff, for a long and tedious time, groveled at the American boots, begging them to “help us surrender nicely.” In plain language. This took place in Switzerland. By the way, SS General Wolff outlived many and died in the late 1970s or even the 1980s.
He was very pleased with Lanovoy’s portrayal of his role and sent him gifts for this. Here it’s the same thing. On the 27, these protocols of the modern Wolff and Dulles were published in the Moscow Times. The role of Dulles was played by Graham, as Sullivan’s envoy. And in Russians, the level of negotiations was higher than that of General Wolff. Graham held his first meeting with Lavrov in New York on April 24. It was a day of shame for the United Nations when Lavrov, a war criminal, came to chair the Security Council meeting. On the same day it was published, Sullivan was abruptly forced to refute: we know nothing, our principle is to know nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. They now repeat this daily. Hence, this non-random reaction to the unsuccessful formula proposed by the Norwegian NATO official.
See also: Nuclear madness of Putin and the American Nuclear Society. What unites them?
Moreover, the tone of the press has changed, which is extremely important for our listeners; I’ll pause a bit on this. The entire June-July period was repugnant because the primary narrative in the American press was as follows: Ukrainians, of course, are victims of aggression, we sympathize with them, but they will never be able to defeat the Russians, offensive is faltering, not meeting expectations, so negotiations are needed in the end. And the same models of ceasefire, a certain part of the territory remains in Putin’s hands, and he presents it to his deep-rooted people as an honorable stalemate, even some kind of victory, and he remains in power. That was the concept, but after these revelations, they were forced to change. In the past week, I’m drawing attention to the major newspapers of both the Republican and Democratic parties. In The Wall Street Journal, there was an excellent article by Bolton that attacked this concept of Burns and Sullivan, who are striving to prevent Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat.
Part of the Republicans will now actively seize the opportunity to “catch Democrats by the leg,” accusing them on the eve of the presidential elections. Yes, it’s a chance for us.
A great pretext. I promise you: now that Congress is returning from recess, there will be hearings about the secret negotiations of Graham at Sullivan’s instigation in Moscow.
The new narrative: of course, this phase of the offensive won’t fully resolve the question of liberating the occupied territories because there’s no aviation, as recognized by The New York Times. And it’s not because Ukrainians are inadequate. The previous narrative was something like — we provided them with everything they needed, remember that phrase?
No, now they’re saying — it’s a certain upheaval within the American administration because for the last two months, there has been complete domination by a group of enthusiasts of Putin’s power.
Now they are forced to retreat, and this is a great victory for Ukrainian diplomacy and those excellent Ukrainian “Stirlitz” who extracted the protocols of those negotiations and made them public.
Who, in your opinion, could have been leading these negotiations from the Russian, Kremlin side to specifically serve Putin’s interests? Shoigu, Patrushev, and the overall criminal Russian National Security Council have an access.
Many point to Patrushev. Firstly, the so-called Prigozhin’s coup revealed a lot: influential figures were behind him. The result of the coup showed that he had support, including from military intelligence. We saw how they had cozy conversations on the bench at the captured by Prigozhin headquarters of the Southern Military District with the deputy head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Alekseyev. Who, it seems, was sent to Africa after that. And, of course, the FSB, because the FSB counterintelligence should have stopped this Prigozhins’ march and eliminated him — the instructions were carried out. That’s why many link Patrushev to the FSB, naturally. Why do I dismiss this figure? They’re all low-level, but this one is a complete idiot. When he speaks somewhere, remember how he gleefully talked for several days about the radioactive cloud heading towards Warsaw after the explosion of the ammunition depot for Safegard with depleted uranium. And it was clear that he believed in it. But they’re all idiots, you understand?
And the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Naryshkin, he started spinning tales too!
Yes, he also believed in that nonsense he was telling yesterday or the day before about how God created Naryshkin in His own image and likeness, and now some Western pervert gynecologists were trying to rape him, and he’s afraid to travel to Europe because of his behind. That’s pure nonsense.
Or Shoigu, who provided two reasons, or tasks, special military operation. Why did they start the war — to liberate their prisoners of war and to prevent strikes on Moscow and the Kremlin. But strikes on Moscow and the Kremlin are happening every day now. There must be someone more intelligent after all. It seems to me that the main instigator of this conspiracy is mainly Yury Kovalchuk, the closest person to Putin, his guru, who inspired him with this idea.
And who would don the uniform of General Wolff as negotiators?
Carefully read these negotiations of Graham, they were published in the Moscow Times and in several of my articles in Russian. There are two very interesting parts. The first part is about the betrayal of the United States that they propose. Graham came with a proposal that Crimea, of course, remains, and in the four so-called republics that have become part of Russia constitutionally, new referendums will be held where people will express their opinions — capitulation, in a word.
And the second part — he describes how his interlocutors reacted. He directly says: I sat across from the highest Russian officials and advisors, and they told me strange things, like yes, we understand that the war was a mistake, and we agree with your plan, but Putin does not agree. Do you understand? And other signals indicate that Putin’s principles changed dramatically after the Prigozhin’s coup, which is considered unsuccessful. In reality, it was successful; he achieved the goals that the people around Kovalchuk were aiming for — a sharp weakening of Putin’s power, understanding the senselessness and futility of the war, something Prigozhin always emphasized in his speeches. Some interpret Prigozhin as a hawk who fought against the “soft” Putin to conduct the war more forcefully. Read his speeches — he not only criticized Shoigu. He said: we didn’t started this senseless war. And these people you’re asking about, you can consider them as individuals, and Graham talks about them in general terms — they sat across from Graham and told him: yes, we agree with your plan, but Putin is the obstacle — he wants to continue the war because he fears that even in the case of an honorable ceasefire, he won’t hold onto power. He will stay in power as long as the war continues. And Graham concludes with a phrase, as if reporting to his leadership: I believe we should rely on these people who are ready to accept our plan, and…
From what I understood, in case of resistance from Putin, they are ready to remove him — we need to assess who was there and who these people are.
And does the Makhachkala scenario have an expansion property?
It will expand with each new situation. Especially if Putin, in his madness, still risks mobilizing in September. You see, as I imagine, I already told you about my rough social scheme of Russia regarding the war: about 10% of the population — convinced z-fascists who demand destruction, smashing, turning Kyiv into a pit, and so on. About the same number, 10-15%, are staunch opponents of the war. The main mass of people, around 80%, are wavering — who, yes, last March would have happily watched the victory parade on Khreshchatyk, but now for them, the main thing is not to become cannon fodder in new Russian assaults and the so-called offensives they are planning. Therefore, the announcement of mobilization, which is being delayed until the last moment, will simply outrage this mass, and the events in Makhachkala will become all-Russian.
Originally posted by Antin Borkovsky on Espreso. Translated and edited by the UaPosition – Ukrainian news and analytics website
