Who and why is organizing a referendum in Bulgaria?
With the approach of a counteroffensive, Moscow is making maximum efforts to disrupt its preparation, particularly the supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine by Western partners. Everything is being used to achieve this, primarily pro-Russian forces in the European Union and NATO countries. The organization of “referendums for peace” is among the main tools they are currently actively using. The Kremlin’s plan is to force European governments to cease military support to Ukraine and, conversely, lean towards a favorable ceasefire with Russia through nationwide surveys and under the guise of peaceful slogans.
Traditionally, Bulgaria is one of the priority countries for such Kremlin’s special operations.
“Let’s show the mood of the Bulgarian people, which is that Bulgaria is not preparing to enter a war,” said one of the organizers of the “All-Bulgarian March for Peace and Neutrality,” held in Sofia and other Bulgarian cities on April 23.
The start of collecting signatures for conducting a “referendum for peace and sovereignty” was announced in the country.
By the way, this is not the only referendum planned to be organized in Bulgaria that serves the interests of the Kremlin. In the country, there has been a collection of signatures against Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone for some time, organized by the pro-Russian party Revival. According to the organizers, they have already gathered a sufficient number of votes for parliament to appoint a nationwide survey. Obviously inspired by the success of their proxies, Kremlin strategists have decided that a similar approach can be effective in countering the supply of Bulgarian weapons to Ukraine. Moreover, there are favorable conditions for this in the Kremlin at the moment: Bulgaria has long lacked a stable functioning government, the parliament works from one election to another, and all power in the country is concentrated in the hands of the president, who openly opposes providing military assistance to Ukraine.
Who are the organizers and why are they doing this?
The same individuals who opposed the country’s entry into the Eurozone and the spread of “gender ideology” in the country, who were against shale gas exploration in Bulgaria, and the trade agreements between the EU and the US and Canada, are now part of the initiative committee and public council for the “referendum for peace and sovereignty.” These individuals were active anti-vaxxers, supportive of Putin’s “special operation,” and former members of pro-Russian political forces such as Revival, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Beyond the EU and NATO, and others. Interestingly, the investigative journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhieva is also among them, known for her publications about American bio-laboratories in Ukraine and Georgia.
They want to put as many as six questions on their referendum. These are the ones that directly relate to foreign policy and, in particular, support for Ukraine:
- Do you support the establishment of a national policy of military neutrality for Bulgaria regarding all conflicts outside its territory?
- Do you support the deployment and use of Bulgarian armed forces outside the country in relation to an armed conflict being decided solely through a national referendum?
- Do you support the presence of foreign military formations on the country’s territory resulting from an armed conflict outside Bulgaria being decided solely through a national referendum?
Clearly, the aforementioned questions are aimed at halting Bulgaria’s weapons supply to Ukraine and contradict the country’s participation as a full member of NATO, including its commitments to collective defense within the Alliance. The collection of signatures for the referendum is taking place during mass pro-Russian events, such as the “marches for peace” or the recent Immortal Regiment, as well as through special coordinators in major cities in Bulgaria and in some foreign countries where the Bulgarian community is present.
Playing on fears and emotions
The title “referendum for peace and sovereignty” may initially appear neutral and devoid of any mention of Ukraine. However, behind these peaceful and innocent words lies a clear directive from the Kremlin. “Peace” means ceasing the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, and supporting and promoting the idea of a ceasefire on the European level, which Moscow has been unsuccessfully pleading for a long time. “Sovereignty” entails, at the very least, Bulgaria’s acceptance of “independent” decisions regarding the EU and NATO, i.e., decisions that destabilize and exacerbate divisions within both organizations. At most, it could lead to the country’s withdrawal from both blocs. All of this is accompanied by emotional messages about how both peoples, who are fraternal to Bulgarians, are dying in the war and the dragging of Bulgaria into the conflict.
“Step by step, with small strides, without much noise, Bulgaria and Bulgarians are inching closer to war. That is why we are conducting this referendum – so that Bulgarians can say whether they want their children to be sacrificed for foreign interests and their land – this paradise garden – to be turned into a bombing site,” stated the referendum’s initiative committee.
Here are a few more examples of blatant manipulations promoted by the organizers of the referendum during public events, in the media, and on social networks:
- There is a possibility that Bulgarian citizens will be mobilized and sent to war if it expands and if Bulgarian politicians make decisions that involve Bulgaria in direct military conflict.
- Currently, preparations are underway in Bulgaria to deploy Bulgarian troops to the conflict zone in Ukraine.
- Male Bulgarian citizens are receiving conscription notices to report to military recruitment centers, indicating that Bulgaria is likely beginning preparations to send soldiers to Ukraine.
- The idea of introducing military training for students in grades 10 and 11 aims to prepare youth for deployment to the conflict zone in Ukraine. Therefore, senior high school students should not attend military training classes, as they would be subject to mobilization and deployment to the front.
By the way, these and other similar manipulative theses were actively disseminated by Bulgarian pro-Russian parties during the last parliamentary election campaign. Given that all of them had access to national media, the Kremlin’s information outlets were able to reach the widest possible audience.
What the law says
According to the Law of Bulgaria “On the Direct Participation of Citizens in State Power and Local Self-Government,” referendums cannot be organized on matters that are part of international treaties already adopted and ratified at the national level (such as the country’s membership in the European Union and NATO).
In order for a referendum to be held, initiative committees must collect at least 200,000 signatures from Bulgarian citizens who have the right to vote. If more than 400,000 signatures are collected, the parliament is obliged to make a decision to appoint a referendum. If between 200,000 and 400,000 signatures are collected, the parliament decides whether such a referendum should be held. The permanent parliamentary committees provide their opinions, based on which the main commission (in the case of a referendum, it is the Commission on the Direct Participation of Citizens and Interaction with Civil Society) prepares a draft decision.
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In addition, according to the Bulgarian Criminal Code, manipulative statements disseminated by the referendum initiators constitute deliberate public dissemination of lies that may cause fear and panic among the population. This is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 5 to 15 years.
However, the Bulgarian authorities do not strongly hinder either the “marches for peace” or various referendums that divide Bulgarian society and work in the interests of the Kremlin. The explanation for such tolerance towards “peaceful” initiatives by pro-Russian elements in Bulgaria may be that they generally align with the position taken by President Rumen Radev and appointed by him interim government regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and the support of Ukraine with weapons.
Any result is good for the Kremlin
Currently, it is not possible to say whether the initiators of the “referendum for peace and sovereignty” will be able to gather the necessary number of votes for it to be conducted. Even if they do collect them, much will depend on the parliamentary committees, particularly the Commission on the Direct Participation of Citizens and Interaction with Civil Society, which is expected to consist mainly of representatives of pro-European forces.
Nevertheless, regardless of whether the “referendum for peace and sovereignty” will be conducted or not, the very activity surrounding its preparation is already serving the Kremlin’s interests. It is dividing Bulgarian society and fueling dissatisfaction with the state’s military support of Ukraine, as well as the country’s membership in NATO and the EU. Furthermore, through the “peaceful initiatives” of Bulgarian Russophiles, the Kremlin can demonstrate that despite military aggression, a portion of Bulgaria’s population still holds a favorable view of Russia and opposes the supply of Bulgarian weapons to Ukraine. Therefore, even if the cunning scheme of the referendum does not culminate in a direct expression of will, what is happening around it already satisfies the Kremlin.
Originally posted by Ihor Fedyk on Glavcom.ua. Translated and edited by the UaPosition – Ukrainian news and analytics website
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