British intelligence claims that Russia lacks personnel for the defence of the Kherson region and is likely planning to deploy mobilized reservists in this sector as of October 6, 2022.
Source: British Ministry of Defence
“Advancing south, Ukrainian units have pushed the front line forwards by up to an additional 20km, primarily making gains along the east bank of the Inhulets and the west bank of the Dnipro, but not yet threatening the main Russian defensive positions.”
According to British Ministry of Defence, the Russian command probably views the growing threat in the Nova Kakhovka sector as one of the most urgent problems. In particular, the damaged river crossing over the Dnipro in this area remains one of the few available ways for them to replenish their forces.
“Russia faces a dilemma: withdrawal of combat forces across the Dnipro makes defence of the rest of Kherson Oblast more tenable; but the political imperative will be to remain and defend.”
It is also noted that Russia has involved most of its undermanned airborne troops, which do not have a sufficient number of personnel, to the defence of Kherson.
“Therefore, Russia currently has few additional, high quality rapidly deployable forces available to stabilize the front: it likely aims to deploy mobilized reservists to the sector.”