Originally published on Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, translated by UaPosition
As of August 11, 2016, the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (CACDS) states the following:
In August the situation around Ukraine sharply became worth, from the Russian side everything is ready to conduct extensive intense fighting involving regular troops of the Russian Armed Forces.
The Kremlin’s main goal is to change power in Ukraine, that, according to Putin and his accomplices may happen in intensive or extensive way: through a large-scale military operation or as a result of forcing Ukrainian authorities to hold elections on the occupied territories with the launch of the mechanism of revenge in foreign policy.
To launch the prepared mechanism of the full-scale war against Ukraine is possible at any time – even secondary and non-strategic events (such as an attack on the leader of terrorist organizations LNR or DNR may be practicing the element for launching the negative scenario).
According to this emphasize on the existence of several extremely dangerous (peak) dates:
Independence Day of Ukraine is a special irritant, because this holiday disproves the Kremlin’s thesis that Ukraine “failed as a state”. 25 years – a term which proves that Ukraine exists, and it is independent from Russia, and the people of Ukraine not only have no connection with Russia, but are the completely different identity.
However, to begin the war can be used any other cause. CACDS has concluded that the military training Caucasus — 2016″, which begins in early September, can be transformed into a military operation against Ukraine and become the beginning of the high intensity war.
The important dates are also September 5 (when the meeting of G20 and Normandy format in China will be held) and September 18 (parliamentary elections in Russia). The period after September 5 can be exactly considered as the most dangerous.
In August formed critically adverse for Ukraine foreign policy circumstances:
- First. The election campaign in the United States has entered the phase, which doesn’t allow distractions to Ukrainian events.
- Second. Europe has almost got drowned with own problems, many of which as it is believed by some European leaders, could be solved with the help of Russia.
- And the third factor. Elections in Russia call for the mobilization and solidarity of the electorate. Wars, external enemy as it is well known are the best choices for Russia.
In CACDS warns: the weakness of the USA and the EU, too restrained position of NATO allow the possibility during the next 10-12 months to implement any of the scenarios on the territory of post-Soviet states.
Against the background of a deep economic crisis in Russia and on the eve of parliamentary elections in the State Duma of Russia, Kremlin has already started to form the necessary information format (total filling the information space with the “heroic propaganda from fronts”, supporting rating of pro-Kremlin parties and spreading with the purpose to zombie population of Russia with the fake proofs of the thesis about providing by America war against Russia on the territory of Ukraine).
In case of the successful realization of the full-scale attack by Russia on Ukraine, will be created conditions for even more preservation of the cult of the Putin’s regime and increase of his personal rating, despite the critical worsening of the economic situation in Russia.
Successful implementation of the plan will make it possible to fulfill the main task of the Russian aggression against Ukraine – the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state, and solve important problems – for example, the creation of a land corridor to the turned in a military base Crimea, the removal of the question of construction of the Crimean bridge, solving the problem of the blockade of Transnistria, etc.
We underline that for Putin right now has opened a “window of opportunity” to use the last chance and fix a number of strategic mistakes that he has made over the past 2.5 years. In CACDS are sure: if Putin fails to use this chance, by mid-2017 the situation (both internal and external) can become for him a welcome challenge (the new US administration will begin to actively influence the world politics, the economy of Russia will reach the peak of the crisis).
In connection with the announced Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies :
- Calls the state officials to take additional measures in preparing the army to the sudden attack of Russian regular troops, to bring the army in full combat readiness for the period from August 20 to September 20. Take steps to prepare the population to avoid panic and mobilize civil society in Ukraine to fight the external enemy.
- Insists on the need to consider the possibility of detailed review of the possibilities of martial law in some regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa regions.
- Initiates an urgent appeal to the think tanks and NGOs of Ukraine, public figures, politicians and experts – to prepare and implement a joint appeal to the leaders of NATO member states and the EU to increase pressure on the leadership of the Russian Federation and prevent bloodshed. As well as calling to unlock frozen military-technical cooperation (MTC) with Ukraine and implement it without restrictions on supplies of technologies and components, and without restrictions on import of weapons and military equipment, provide military-technical assistance.