: :inin Kyiv (EET)

The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

This paper argues that there has been a “nearly proper” cease-fire in the Donbass region of Ukraine since September 2015. The reasons are obvious enough — i.e., the political-military balance on the ground, the current sanctions against Russia, and Moscow’s diverted interest in the Syrian Civil War. But what about Russia’s future military options in Donbass? The paper’s author contends that it may 1) use force to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake part of the area; 2) obstruct the Minsk process if it is disadvantageous for Moscow; or 3) seize more territory if there is further political and social …read more

Source: International Relations and Security Network

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