Ukraine is likely to receive only one tranche under a program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and, therefore, will not be able to reach an increase of international reserves to $19.6 billion by late 2016, reaching a target of only $14-15 billion, as stated in a forecast of DA Vinci analytical group provided to UNIAN.
Currently, Ukraine and the IMF are in talks on the second review of the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) approved in March 2015 worth about $17.5 billion. Last year, the Fund disbursed two tranches under the EFF worth a total of $6.7 billion, instead of three as originally planned.
”The most likely scenario, according to our estimates, will be the disbursement of one tranche to the tune of $1.2 billion by the IMF in the current year. This will influence the international reserves forecast for 2016,” the group said.
DA Vinci notes that the first-quarter results raise doubts about the plans of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to reach international reserves target of $18.7 billion by the end of the year, even after it has lowered the initial forecast of $19.6 billion. Against the backdrop of declining investment to the country, the group projects that international reserves will amount to about $14-15 billion by the end of the year.
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