In 2016, the overall balance of payments is expected to show a surplus ($1.2 billion), which, along with the IMF disbursements, will allow reserves to increase up to $18.7 billion, or 4.7 months of future imports, according to the April Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), published on its website.
In 2017, the international reserves are expected to grow to $22.6 billion, or 5.3 months of future imports, due to a balance of payments surplus ($1.6 billion) and loans from the IMF, the Inflation Report says.
In 2016, the current account deficit forecast remained virtually unchanged (UAH 2.3 billion or 2.7% of GDP), although its quarterly pattern and component breakdown were revised. Thus, wider than previously projected merchandise trade deficit will be compensated by larger private remittances from abroad. At the same time, natural gas imports were revised further downwards. In 2017, the current account balance forecast also remained almost unchanged – the deficit will narrow to 1.8% of GDP. Projections for financial account balance in 2016 and 2017 were maintained almost unchanged.
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