The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded the outlook for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2017 from 3% projected earlier to 2.5%, according to the NBU`s presentation to the press conference on monetary policy.
According to the document, the forecast for 2018 has also been deteriorated – from 4% projected earlier to 3.5%, while the forecast for the current year remains unchanged – at 1.1%.
As noted in the NBU materials, the main factor for the decline was pending review regarding the external environment for Ukrainian exporters.
Inflation forecast for 2016-2018 years remains unchanged – at 12%, 8% and 6%, respectively.
At the same time, according to the regulator, inflation will be uneven next year, and during the first three quarters it will exceed the target level of 12% as a result of the tariff increase and statistical effects, however later it will return to the target level.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine`s GDP in Q2, 2016 increased by 1.4% year-over-year and, when seasonally adjusted, it grew by 0.6% as compared with the previous quarter. Nominal GDP in Q2, 2016 amounted to UAH 531.8 billion, or UAH 12,453 per capita.
The key creditor of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, forecasts GDP growth in Ukraine in 2016 by 1.5%, with inflation at 15.1%. The World Bank expects GDP growth by 1% with an inflation rate of 15%.
According to an expert consensus forecast compiled by UNIAN, Ukraine`s gross domestic product by the end of 2016 could reach 1% with inflation of 19%.
